Swing Trading and Day Trading ETFs – Large Position Sizes Are Not Absolutely Necessary

Contrary to popular belief you don’t need to trade big share sizes to make a decent amount of money in the market.

In addition to trading for a living, I manage subscription based educational service called the Swing Trade Playbook. The idea behind the Playbook and this blog is to educate individuals about ETFs, trading, swing trading and day trading.

Every weekday night my Swing Trade Playbook outlines my trading plan for the next trading day. By doing this, I allow individuals to “peek over my shoulder” and see tomorrows trading plan today!

Today’s lesson, you don’t need to trade large size to earn a good living swing trading. The image below shows the positions my Swing Trade Playbook shared with subscribers about one week ago. As you can see the largest position is only 1,136 shares and if you were to enter the positions your unrealized P&L would be pretty close to $21,000 with an initial risk of approximately $7,000 (a 3 to 1 reward to risk ratio).

I wanted to show this since a potential subscriber emailed and asked how I can make any money trading small share sizes.

If you would like to learn more about my Swing Trade Playbook go to my website http://etfupdater.com/examples.

Mike Matousek, CMT
Portfolio Manager, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com

Swing Trading the Best and Worst ETFs

This weekend an individual wanted to learn how we trade ETFs.

I’ll start by saying there is no one Holy Grail in trading and to be successful traders only need to understand a couple of strategies.

The core strategy behind my method is to purchase ETFs during pullbacks and short ETFs during rallies. I feel my method offers less risk than traders buying breakouts and selling break downs since the majority of the trades are entered during either “oversold” or “overbought” conditions.

As many of my subscribers noticed I don’t have many breakout plays in my ETF Swing Trade Playbook and here is why:

Contrary to the “inexperienced” traders’ belief, the majority of breakouts are unsuccessful! Sure, it is easy to look at a chart and identify the best breakout points that happened in the past, but what most inexperienced traders fail to notice is how many breakouts fail – maybe this is why most inexperienced traders are unsuccessful.

Breakouts, the successful ones, don’t happen as often as people think. Realistically, there are only a few times each year an individual sector actually has the opportunity for a good breakout to exist.

Breakouts have greater risk. If a trader believes in trends, support and resistance levels the actual price in which the trend is broken, the stop loss price, is much farther away from the entry price on breakout trades. Therefore, to give the trade the opportunity to work the “wiggle” or stop loss level has to be larger than the “wiggle” for pullback strategies.

The majority of newsletters generally focus on breakouts, since my Swing Trade Playbook focuses on pullbacks and rallies, not only can subscribers diversify their trade discovery tools, but subscribers get see the trades I anticipate doing the day before I do them along with original and uncommon trading methodologies.

Sure, I do trade some breakouts, but they are not my core strategy since, technical analysis research has shown breakout type strategies fail more often than succeed. Generally, wait for the breakout to happen, confirm itself and then I buy the pullback.

I have an educational book called Swing Trade Fundamentals it details the how and why concerning finding trades, determine the correct amount to shares to purchase, determining entry points, exit points and much more.

If you would like to learn more about swing trading, day trading and investing feel free to sign up for our free weekly swing trading educational newsletter at http://etfupdater.com or click here.

Mike Matousek, CMT
Portfolio Manager, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com

ETF Swing Trading – Good or Bad? Depends Which Side of the Market You’re On!

The ETF Sector Rotation Strategy (our strategy for longer term investors) lost ground today, but the positions are still in positive territory.

The Swing Trading Playbook has been hitting it out of the park all week. We had very few trading signals since the positions entered earlier in the week are working great. The Playbook is up about 4.5% for the week and holding a few unrealized gains over the weekend and into next week.

It looks like Monday may be the time to hedge the portfolio or start ringing the register on few positions.

Here is a screen shot of the open positions for the Swing Trade Playbook. As you can see, huge positions are not necessary to make money swing trading. The key this week was keeping the losses small and letting the winners run.

To learn more about how you can benefit from us visit http://etfupdater.com/.

Have a good weekend!

Mike Matousek, CMT
Portfolio Manager, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com/

ETF – Professional Technical Analysis and Money Management Organizations

I believe, to stay on top of their game, money managers must constantly evaluate new market concepts, revisit old trading journals and network with their peers.

To accomplish this task, I belong to a few professional organizations. One of which is the Market Technicians Association (http://mta.org/) and I joined for a few reasons:

1. To learn more about technical analysis to improve my personal trading
2. To meet other professional Market Technicians
3. To help promote the use of Technical Analysis

To Learn more about the MTA click here and to learn more about what a market technician does click here.

Another organization I belong to is the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) to visit the organizations website click here.

Each organization has a different focus, but together, they combine the knowledge, insight and camaraderie I feel a money manager needs to succeed.

If you have any questions or would like my opinion about how you can benefit, feel free to contact me. For our contact information click here.

Michael Matousek, CMT
Portfolio Manager, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com/

ETF Swing Trades – Swing Trading Playbook

Contrary to a lot of individual’s beliefs, traders using a swing trading approach do not need to make trades everyday to be successful.

For example, the image below shows the ETF symbols that triggered a possible short sell signal (we emailed this list to subscribers to the day before a swing trade signal could be generated). If you are following the markets and our posts closely, today was the first time any of the ETFs had a net positive day since the signal was generated. This is good, since the ETF Swing Trade Playbook showed these as a short sell opportunity. That means if they go down we were correct in our directional bias.

Here are the ETFs that didn’t get stoped out since the “playbook” was issued on December 10, 2007.

If you want to know what ETFs and swing trades I’m planning for the next trading day visit us at http://etfupdater.com/. We have a trial offer for $19.99 until the end of the year, then it goes to $49.99 per month.

Mike Matousek, CMT
Portfolio Manager, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com/

Investor Sentiment

Investor Sentiment is important for traders when determining a directional bias for their swing trades. Remember, swing trading consists of trades generally last more than a day and can continue for a few weeks if the trader’s bias remains constant.

It is even quite common for institutional traders to use the bias generated from investor sentiment analysis to determine the type of scalping trades they make. For instance, if the investor sentiment bias is bearish, the traders generally trade the market on intraday signals from the short side.

Investor sentiment isn’t discussed much in the mainstream media, but it is an important tool in determining market bias. I’m not sure, but maybe it’s not mentioned because it doesn’t have “sizzle” or is as “black and white” as a moving average. Or, perhaps, it’s due to the fact that it is a “smart money” indicator and the “dumb money” wants avoid learning how their emotions fueled the huge turnaround they recently missed. Whatever the reason, the less people educated about market psychology the better the market becomes for the informed trader.

“Smart Money” or institutional investors do the difficult work and look deep at the internals of the market while everyone else waits for the media to explain it. Since it is difficult to find the CBOE VIX or the Put/Call ratio from one source, I need to dig through multiple web sites to determine the current readings of each one.

Here is a site that has a few of the indicators I mentioned http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/.

Robert J. Ogilvie
CIO and Head Trader
http://www.skyboxtrading.com/

Commodity ETFs – Should They be in Your Portfolio

My friend Mike asked me a few weeks ago to contribute his blog with my thoughts on commodities, especially the precious metals since I truly believe investors can benefit from some exposure to commodities as an asset class in a well diversified portfolio.

There have been many studies and research projects about how some allocation to commodities will increase your return and lower your risk over the long term. How much depends on one’s risk and comfort level. 5-10% may be more than enough for most, while most aggressive investors will be comfortable with 40-50%. Such ETFs as GLD, SLV, CEF, GDX and others have made it relatively easy for an individual to get exposure. Sure, you can buy a resources mutual fund (but why pay the managers above average fees) or individual mining companies directly (but why worry about operational risk, management risk, currency risk, geopolitical risk, environmental risk) when you can get exposure to the asset class through ETFs.

When I first started trading metals in the mid 1990s, I had to buy gold coins at the local dealer, but now the with the ease of owning commodity ETFs along with the diversification they offer, any investor would be foolish not to own commodity-related ETFs.

If you are new to investing, start by accumulating on a pullback and build a position over time (but be wary of your commission costs) and rebalance at least yearly, if not quarterly, depending on your risk tolerance. This world is too global and offers too much opportunity not to have some exposure.

Amaury
Contributing Author, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com

ETFs the “New Stocks”

To be successful market participants must always strive to keep learning, even participants such as myself. Because of this, I found a new product to trade and they are fast becoming my preferred trading and investment vehicles.

ETFs are a derivative (don’t let that word scare you) of a basket of stocks. They can be designed to track nearly any group of stocks offering investors and traders quick and easy exposure to a specific market, sector or sub sector of the market. They are quickly becoming my trading vehicle of choice since they are less volatile than individual stocks, are not as prone to single company stock risk and liquidity is not an issue (even with ETFs that trade less than one hundred thousand shares per day).

I started trading ETFs, Exchange Traded Funds, around 1999. Over the next few years the variety of ETFs grew considerably. For example, the first ETFs to really catch the public’s eye were “main stream” ETFs were mostly index tracking products for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ), S&P500 (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial (DIA) indexes. Now the makers of the ETFs even make ETFs for special strategies.

Mike Matousek, CMT
Portfolio Manager, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com/

GDX & GLD ETF Update – Gold Miners and Gold

I would like to introduce a friend and contributing author, Amaury.

Amaury is a personal friend and head trader at an investment management firm. He likes to focus on the commodity sectors within the markets, but more specifically gold and gold mining stocks.

Here is his latest insight:

The market weakness and uncertainty over the last month has created some interesting opportunities in the resources sector, especially in the Canadian junior sector. Those stocks have suffered from tax loss selling, project disappointments (i.e.: NG and the Galore Creek project), and risk-aversion selling from investors preferring large cap, less volatile names or cash. While there are over 3,000 juniors, I really like selling my GLD over $80 and using that cash to add or buy a few beaten down juniors. Of course, stick with the ‘best’ names- strong management team, good balance sheet, adequate cash, and advanced projects (gold-silver-copper projects in Mexico are my favorite). The fundamentals remain strong for gold and other metals, but the best trade I see right now is to look for companies that are unfairly trading at new lows and hold them over the next 12 months. Investors that can ride the volatility will be better rewarded than owing GLD outright.

Newmont (NEM), which makes up 10% of Gold Miners ETF (GDX), has agreed to sell its royalty assets and other non-core investments to Franco Nevada (FNV on Toronto) a few days ago. I like selling NEM over $50 and using that cash to buy smaller US and Canadian names that have advanced gold exploration projects. I feel this transaction opens the door for an interesting m&a period over the next 12 months.

Amaury
Contributing Author, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com/

Leveraged ETFs – The Leverage Mix-UP

I’ve come across many market participants believing if they purchase a leveraged ETF and held it for an extended period of time, the ETF’s performance should double the index or sector it’s benchmarked against.

Please understand this is not the case. The majority seek to provide a 200% DAILY return on the underlying index they track.

Notice I typed “DAILY”!

Noted in the ETF providers prospectus, which I’m sure we all read quite diligently. It is stated the leveraged ETF is designed to double the Daily return, not the total return for time periods greater that one day.

I noticed this while I was helping a hedge fund that trades ETFs quite heavily. The were using the leveraged ETFs to hedge the portfolio and noticed the hedge was not delta neutral. The hedge was actually appreciating more than what the underlying portfolio was depreciating.

So, why does this happen? Why doesn’t it track properly if market participants hold positions overnight? Compounding! Just as we all like compound interest you get the same effect here, except since the ETF can depreciate in price it can work adversely too.

Over time the effect of compounding and leverage can have a significant effect on the total return of the ETF.

Here is an example assuming a $10,000 investment.

Day 1:

The underlying index increases 1%
The leveraged ETF increases 2%

The first day = 200% return, just as we thought, and we outpaced the market, great!

Day 2:

The underlying index decreases 1%
The leveraged ETF decreases 2%

Underlying Index Value: $9,999 (An increase of $100 and then a decrease of $101 on day two)

Leveraged ETF Value: $9,996 (an increase of $200 and then a decrease of $204)

As you can see the index decreased in value $1 over two days and the leveraged ETF decreased $4 over the two days (this is four times the cumulative index loss as opposed to two times the loss).

Hopefully, I’ve explained this in detail enough for you to see how over a longer period of time the cumulative percentage change of the leveraged ETF has the ability to vary significantly from the underlying index.

Here are a few popular Leveraged ETFs:

QLD
DDM
SSO
MVV
SAA
UWM

If you would like to learn more about leveraged ETFs visit my home page http://etfupdater.com or http://proshares.com.

Mike Matousek, CMT
Portfolio Manager, ETF Updater
http://etfupdater.com